All-In Podcast Deep Dive: What Money-Making Opportunities Did the Four Silicon Valley Billionaires See in 2026?

By: blockbeats|2026/01/19 13:00:01
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Original Title: All-In's 2026 Predictions
Original Source: All-In Podcast
Original Translation: Yuliya, PANews

The All-In Podcast is one of the world's most popular tech and business podcasts, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, resident provocateur), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the "SPAC King," sharp-tongued), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a deep scientific background, known as the "Sultan of Science"), and David Sacks (America’s first "AI and Crypto Czar," close confidant of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, recently deeply involved in U.S. politics). In this episode, the four delve into deep predictions on the political, business, and tech trends of 2026, covering topics such as California's wealth tax, Trumpianomics, AI's impact on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment advice.

Below is the detailed content of this conversation, translated by PANews:

Opening: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis

Jason Calacanis (referred to as Jason below): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is eager to know, how's the adjustment to Texas been since your move?

David Sacks (referred to as Sacks below): I'm loving the 70-degree Fahrenheit (about 21 degrees Celsius) weather here. I moved in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed the lease for Craft Ventures' Austin office. Everything is settled.

Jason: Chamath, how about you?

Chamath Palihapitiya (referred to as Chamath below): We are going to investigate, but have not made a final decision yet.

Sacks: The funniest thing is, when we were discussing the California wealth tax in the group chat, Chamath was there acting like, "I'm going to stay and fight, I'm not leaving my home." Then I got a call from a realtor saying she was helping Chamath look for a house.

Jason: Wow! Is Chamath engaging in some "backroom dealing"?

Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have definitively left, their total net worth is about $500 billion. This is very unfavorable for California's long-term budget. If you count those who are still on the fence but may be forced to leave, roughly half of the taxable wealth that California budgeted for will probably be lost.

Sacks: I predict that (the California wealth tax) will be the topic of the year. They are collecting signatures, and it will probably take about 850,000 signatures to get this proposal on the ballot. If it makes it to the list in April, it will trigger huge panic, and many people will leave because they can't afford the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version to come back in 2028. That's why I decided to leave.

Chamath: If you are an entrepreneur with a good idea, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed and hold a large amount of illiquid stock, having to pay 5% of the value of that stock as a tax will bankrupt your own company.

Sacks: And what if your company goes to zero the next year? You still owe taxes. Also, one of the reasons Larry Page and Sergey Brin (Google founders) might have left is the provision of super-voting rights in the proposal. This provision states that if you have super-voting rights, the tax authorities will value all your shares at a multiple of the super-voting rights. For example, if they own 52% of Google's voting rights and Google is valued at $4 trillion, their net worth could be considered as each having $1 trillion rather than the actual $200 billion. For them, a 5% tax actually becomes a 25% or even 50% tax.

Jason: Lightning prediction time, will this "asset seizure tax" pass?

David Friedberg (hereinafter referred to as Friedberg): I don't think it will make it to the ballot.

Chamath: I don't think it will pass, but it will make it to the ballot.

Sacks: Previously, the probability of it making it to the ballot on Polymarket was only 45%, but after the intervention of Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders, it surged to 80%. There are only two scenarios where it won't make it: one is if the union (SEIU) doesn't have the money to gather signatures, and two is if Gavin Newsom (Governor of California) can negotiate to have them withdraw.

Chamath: But if it makes it to the ballot, the probability of it passing is 40%.

2026's Biggest Business Winner

Jason: Next up is the business winner. In last year's predictions, Friedberg chose robotics and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath chose the US dollar stablecoin, Gavin chose large AI-utilizing companies, and I chose Tesla and Google. It's safe to say we all predicted well. Friedberg, who are you picking this year?

Friedberg: I have two choices.

· The first is Huawei. I believe Huawei's collaboration with SMIC, making deep inroads in the semiconductor field, is firing on all cylinders, and their performance this year will exceed Western expectations.

· The second is Polymarket, which has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform that provides real-time insights. I predict it will have a breakout year this year. Following its collaboration with the NYSE, I expect all trading platforms, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even NASDAQ, to make moves this year. The prediction market will not only be the market but will also become the news.

Chamath: I choose copper. In a world increasingly moving towards unilateralism and emphasizing national economic resilience, we still severely underestimate the gap between global demand and supply for a few critical elements. In this context, the asset most likely to skyrocket is copper. It is currently the most useful, cheapest, most versatile, and conductive material, ubiquitous from data centers to chips, and even to weapon systems. At the current rate, by 2040, there will be about a 70% gap in global copper supply.

Sacks: I believe that 2026 will be the big year for IPOs. There will be a large number of companies successfully going public, creating trillions of dollars in new market value. For some time, people have been concerned about the shrinking number of public companies, with many going private. 2026 will see a significant reversal of this trend, which is also part of the "Trump prosperity."

Jason: I picked Google last year, and this year my pick is Amazon. I believe they will be the first "Enterprise Epoch" company, where the profits contributed by machines to the company will surpass those of humans. Their autonomous driving company Zoox is progressing well, and they are simultaneously scaling up the use of robots to replace human workers. In Austin, we can now get same-day delivery for anything ordered on Amazon, thanks to a massive automated warehouse and logistics network supporting it.

Sacks: I think Jason's assessment of Amazon will ultimately be correct, but for reasons entirely unrelated to what he stated.

Biggest Commercial Loser of 2026

Jason: After discussing the winners, let's take a look at the losers. Last year's predictions, we all had a consensus, Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin all pointed to enterprise SaaS, while I chose traditional automotive and real estate. As it turned out, enterprise SaaS did indeed perform poorly in 2025, with companies like ServiceNow, Workday, DocuSign seeing a decline in stock prices. Friedberg, what is your prediction for this year's biggest business loser?

Friedberg: I believe state governments will face significant financing difficulties. With increasing exposure of waste, fraud, and abuse in state government agencies, people will begin to question their long-term solvency. More significantly, the massive unrealized pension liabilities of various states will be exposed this year, causing people to realize there is a huge financial black hole in state government finances.

Chamath: I'm choosing the software industrial complex, those companies selling licensed SaaS to US enterprises. This is a $3-4 trillion economy, but 90% of the revenue comes from "maintenance" and "migration." With the advancement of AI models and technology, I believe the economic opportunities in these two areas will rapidly shrink. Companies still need software, but the incremental revenue will significantly decrease, which will severely impact publicly traded SaaS companies.

Sacks: I still choose California. Due to the shadow of wealth tax and a harsh regulatory environment, businesses and capital are being driven out of this state. I sincerely hope you are right, and this bill will not ultimately make it to the ballot. If it does, there will be a panic-driven exodus.

Jason: My pick is American Young White-collar Workers. I believe they are finding it increasingly difficult to land entry-level jobs because companies are finding it easier to automate using AI than to train recent graduates. I see many companies replacing some of the bottom-tier repetitive tasks with AI, tasks that are usually done by recent graduates. This is not to say that young people don't have opportunities, but they need to become more resilient, self-reliant, and must learn to use AI tools.

Friedberg: I have a different view on this. I've heard from some CEO friends that now recruiting recent graduates is very difficult, not because of AI, but because of cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem to lack job enthusiasm, organizational skills, and executive function. This may be a special phenomenon of the COVID-19 era or a more profound cultural shift. So I think that the difficulty young people face in employment is the combined result of cultural factors and AI automation.

Jason: I think both are true. Perhaps these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money to let them coast. But I also indeed see many companies telling me that they can replace the bottom third of tasks, tasks that are usually done by recent graduates.

The Most Significant Deal of 2026

Jason: Now let's predict the most significant deal of 2026. Sacks, what are your thoughts?

Sacks: I don't want to name specific companies, but I believe the field of Coding Assistants and Tool Use will see a significant breakthrough. Just like the chatbots at the end of 2022, the heat in this area is rising sharply, and I think it will become increasingly important this year.

Friedberg: I believe the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year. There are many economic and political factors driving this process, which will bring more stability to the region.

Chamath: I think it's not about a particular deal but a transformation in how deals are done: IP licensing transactions will replace traditional M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions). Due to increasing antitrust scrutiny, large-scale M&A has become extremely challenging. Therefore, companies will instead opt for large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. Partnerships like Google with Character.AI, Microsoft with OpenAI, and NVIDIA with Grok exemplify this model. I believe this type of transaction will become more common and mature in 2026.

Jason: I believe we will see a mega-deal exceeding $500 billion. It could be one of Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI newcomers like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies aspire to go public independently, but I think an irresistible offer will eventually emerge. Former President Trump may direct the government to "make M&A great again," which is crucial for the U.S. to maintain global competitiveness.

Most Bold Contrarian Predictions for 2026

Jason: Now comes everyone's favorite part: the most bold contrarian predictions. In last year's predictions, I said OpenAI would lose its leading position, which indeed happened; Chamath predicted a crisis in major banks; Gavin predicted GDP would see over 5% annual growth; and Friedberg predicted the resurgence of socialism. It can be said that everyone's predictions were quite forward-thinking. Friedberg, what is your contrarian prediction for this year?

Friedberg: My prediction is based on one premise: Iran will experience a revolution, and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But this is not my contrarian view; I believe this will happen. My contrarian view is: Iran's fall will not bring stability to the Middle East but will instead lead to more conflicts. Many see Iran as a destabilizing force in the region, but I believe it actually plays a certain "stabilizing" role. Once this regime is gone, other Arab nations (such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will engage in new conflicts to vie for power and influence, especially after the Palestinian "two-state solution" emerges. The Middle East's situation will be worse than anyone anticipates.

Sacks: My contrarian prediction is that AI will increase the demand for knowledge workers instead of reducing it. I want to reference the "Jevons' paradox": when the cost of a resource decreases, the total demand for it actually increases because people discover more use cases. For example, the lower cost of generating code will lead society to create a massive amount of software; the reduced cost of radiology scans will make scanning more ubiquitous, thereby requiring more radiologists to interpret and validate AI results. The so-called "unemployment narrative" is not only wrong; in fact, we will see employment growth.

Chamath: I have two contrarian predictions.

· First: SpaceX will not IPO but will instead reverse-merge into Tesla. I believe Elon Musk will take this opportunity to consolidate his two most important assets into one equity structure to solidify his control.

· Second: Central banks around the world will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and seek a brand-new, controllable cryptographic paradigm. To maintain national sovereignty, they need an asset that is tradable, secure, and fully private, one that is not easily peeked into by other countries, whether friends or foes. And technically, it must be able to withstand the challenges of quantum computing that may emerge in the next 5 to 10 years to the current encryption systems.

Jason: My contrarian prediction is that the confrontation between China and the US will be largely resolved. I believe this could become a landmark achievement in President Trump's second term. Both sides will reach a win-win working relationship, rather than a zero-sum game where one side loses.

Best Performing Asset in 2026

Jason: Last year, Gavin predicted a surge of 230% in high-bandwidth memory manufacturers' stocks like Micron, and Friedberg's prediction of Chinese tech stocks also performed well. This year, what asset do you think will perform the best?

Friedberg: Once again, I choose Polymarket. Its network effect is becoming apparent, and it is replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, with enormous potential.

Chamath: I choose a basket of key metals. This is consistent with the logic of copper I mentioned earlier, as the demand for these basic materials will be robust against the backdrop of geopolitical and supply chain reshaping.

Sacks: I choose the expansion supercycle in the tech sector. This is still part of my "Trump prosperity" theory. And, just today as we record the show, the Atlanta Fed just raised its forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to a stunning 5.4%.

Chamath: There are a few things that people are not realizing.

· First, non-farm payroll data has been reset due to immigration issues, and income growth for the low-income group has been very rapid.

· Second, the productivity boost from AI.

· Third, the tax cut policy set to take effect in 2026.

All of these factors combined create a huge growth momentum. Do not short the U.S. economy, it's ready to take off. A 6% GDP growth is not unrealistic.

Jason: In an environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates may be lowered, and people have extra cash on hand, my choice is the speculative and gambling sector, including platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more disposable income to place bets and speculate.

Worst Performing Assets of 2026

Jason: Last year, our predictions for the worst-performing assets were amazingly consistent, almost all pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional automotive/real estate, which has proven to be true. Sacks, what asset do you predict will be the worst performer this year?

Sacks: I believe it will be high-end homes in California. Faced with the ongoing impact of a wealth tax rumor, this market will come under immense pressure. I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, there will be a "dead cat bounce" to let me unload my real estate holdings.

Chamath: I think it's hydrocarbons, which is oil. I think the trend of falling oil prices is irreversible. Regardless of your views on climate change, the trend of electrification and energy storage technology is unstoppable. This will continuously narrow the effective use cases of oil. I think the oil price is more likely to fall to $45 per barrel than to return to $65.

Friedberg: I think Netflix will be the worst-performing asset (assuming they don't complete the acquisition of Warner Bros), or more broadly, the worst-performing will be traditional media stocks. Netflix's content library is facing challenges from all sides, and the terms they offer to content creators now (cost plus 10%) are very stringent, leading many excellent creators to no longer willing to collaborate with them. If they do not expand the content library through acquisitions, they will face a huge dilemma. And traditional media is being challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.

Jason: I choose the US dollar. Our national debt continues to grow, with an expected additional $2 trillion this year. If President Trump really increases the military budget by 50%, it will directly add to our debt. All of this will pose a challenge to the value of the dollar, which is one of the reasons we see people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.

The Most Anticipated Trends in 2026

Jason: Last year, the trends we anticipated included the return of M&A and IPOs, the rapid development of AI, and the construction of nuclear power plants. This year, what trends are you most looking forward to?

Friedberg: I think the most anticipated trend this year will be Iran becoming an independent democratic country. The people there, especially the youth, yearn for freedom, and the economic crisis is also driving this transformation. This may be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East.

Sacks: The trend I am most looking forward to is the audit of government spending at all levels. We need to normalize the "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" to show the public where the money is being spent.

Chamath: What I look forward to is the expansion of "Trumpism." Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant, whether running a business, investing in the stock market, or engaging in cryptocurrency speculation, understanding the changing global economic landscape is crucial. Unilateralism, economic resilience, this is a huge trend, the result of which will be massive GDP growth.

Jason: I still stand by last year's prediction and extend it to 2026: the comeback of the IPO market. I believe that giants like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will have at least two of them filing for an IPO this year. This will ignite the market, an exciting moment for Silicon Valley, the employees of these companies, and the pension funds and endowments holding their shares.

The Biggest Political Winner of 2026

Jason: Well, let's move on to the formal prediction segment. First, who will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Looking back on last year's predictions, Friedberg said it was a young candidate, Gavin (guest host) said it was Trump and centrism, Chamath said it was fiscal conservatives, and I said it was a representative figure of Generation X and Millennials. Friedberg, what's your pick for this year?

Friedberg: Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Just as the MAGA movement has taken over the Republican Party, I believe the DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will solidify in 2026.

Chamath: Anyone committed to combating waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels. This is an open lane, and I believe this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.

Sacks: I think the "Trump Boom" will be the biggest political winner. The good economic news is already starting to show: inflation down to 2.7%, core CPI at 2.6%, Q3 GDP growth at 4.3%, the lowest trade deficit since 2009, a significant decrease in job layoffs. The S&P 500 index keeps hitting record highs, oil prices are falling, mortgage costs are down by $3000, real wages have risen by over $1000. I predict that by June, we will see a 75 to 100 basis point rate cut, and with larger standard deductions and tax-free policies on tips, overtime pay, etc., there will be a massive tax rebate in April. All of this will have a huge impact on next year's political landscape.

Jason: What is your GDP prediction?

Sacks: I'm going with 5%.

Chamath: I think the floor is 5% and the ceiling is 6.2%. You have to understand, if we can hit 6%, the only quasi-competitor in the modern world is China, and that's during a period where it has complete coordination and dominance over its federal, state, and local economies. For us to be able to do this under democracy and capitalism would be remarkable.

Friedberg: I predict 4.6%.

Jason: My prediction wavered between the JD Vance moment and the Mamdani moment, but I ultimately settled on the Mamdani moment. At just 34 years old, and with the Democratic Party seemingly convinced that veering fully socialist is the easiest path to victory in 2026, I think Trump, by neglecting the needs of the American working class, has inadvertently cleared the way for this. He now seems more like a neoconservative, bombing seven countries this year and threatening to annex Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many.

Biggest Political Loser of 2026

Jason: So, talking about winners, let's touch on losers. Last year, Gavin and I both predicted Putin, Chamath predicted progressivism, Friedberg predicted war-loving neoconservatism. Sacks, who do you think will be the biggest political loser of 2026?

Sacks: I think it's Democratic Centrism. This is essentially the other side of what you guys see as a win for socialism. Two reasons for this:

· One, socialist ideology has gained ground among the Democratic base voters, especially the youth;

· Two, due to gerrymandering, most congressional districts no longer have real competition, and Democratic incumbents' only real threat comes from left-wing challengers, so even moderates are forced to veer left.

Chamath: The biggest loser of 2026 is the Monroe Doctrine. I think when historians look back at the Trump presidency, they will rewrite it. I think there's a clear "Trumpism" that has surpassed the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view war? How do we view our sphere of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism? All of that is outdated. Trump's view is hemispheric dominance, taking proactive intervention in very specific instances such as going after drug cartels, controlling immigration, securing critical assets. We have more transactional relationships, which allow us to respond at any moment.

Friedberg: I think the biggest political loser of 2026 is the tech industry. AI and tech wealth have become targets of both sides of populism. The right is splitting internally, with the alliance between tech and MAGA facing a strong challenge from populism; while the left has become hardened due to the alliance of tech with the right. I believe the 2026 midterm elections will be a nationwide referendum on the tech industry.

Chamath: Friedberg is absolutely right. I met with three senior Republican senators yesterday, and they are very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and their leaders.

Sacks: I believe the natural ally of the tech industry is MAGA, as we still believe in property rights and innovation. If the Democratic Party truly drifts towards socialism, they will want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The reason why the populist right is angry is because they remember censorship, deplatforming, and shadow bans. Tech companies need to have some "truth and reconciliation" meetings with conservatives. Many companies did this under pressure from the Biden administration, and they also made a mistake by only donating to left-wing causes.

Jason: I agree with Sacks that the biggest political losers of 2026 will be the moderate Democrats.

Sacks: Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a new conservative, and I have to respond to that. The hallmark of neoconservatism is: large-scale invasion, long-term occupation, and nation-building. But did Trump do these things? No. Take Venezuela, for example, the whole operation lasted only three hours, no Americans died, it was perfect. We did not overthrow the entire regime but cooperated with the existing regime. This is a whole new paradigm, not neoconservatism.

Jason: I admit, Trump's military action was indeed very precise and efficient, our military performed exceptionally well. But there is always a possibility of things going wrong. If the operation had failed and we had captured hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must remain cautious.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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