Analysis: The main reason for the recent cryptocurrency market crash was the Bank of Japan hinting at a rate hike and market concerns about a potential "Strategy" disaster.
BlockBeats News, December 2nd, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $84,000, plummeting over 8% at one point, and the total crypto market cap fell below $3 trillion. In the past 24 hours, there was $974 million in total liquidations across the network, with long positions liquidated accounting for $851 million of that amount, causing over 260,000 people to be liquidated. In response to this crypto market crash, Arthur Hayes stated that the reason was the Bank of Japan's hint at a possible interest rate hike in December. The USD to JPY exchange rate fluctuated in the 155-160 range, indicating a hawkish stance by the Bank of Japan. Maclane Wilkison, co-founder of Threshold Network, stated, "The Bank of Japan signaling a potential interest rate hike has tightened global liquidity expectations and shaken risk assets."
Additionally, Strategy's CEO Phong Le mentioned that only when a company's stock price falls below its net asset value and cannot secure new funds would they consider selling Bitcoin. Concerns have risen in the market that due to the weakening Bitcoin price, Strategy may be forced to sell coins as they lack cash to pay dividends.
Previously, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's USDT stability rating from "Restricted" to "Weak" and warned that a Bitcoin price decline could lead to the stablecoin facing under-collateralization risk. Arthur Hayes, in a post, mentioned that if the "Gold + BTC position" dropped by approximately 30%, it would wipe out their equity capital, rendering USDT theoretically insolvent. In response to this, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino addressed the "Tether FUD" and stated that the group's equity capital is close to $30 billion. S&P's analysis did not consider additional group equity, nor did it account for the approximately $500 million in monthly net profit solely from U.S. Treasury yields.
Boris Revsin, General Partner and Managing Director at Tribe Capital, described this as a "leverage washout" that caused a chain reaction throughout the market. Simultaneously, the macro environment has become less friendly: short-term rate cut expectations have faded, inflation remains stubborn, the job market is weakening, geopolitical risks are rising, and consumer pressure is increasing. These factors have led to a weak performance in most risk assets over the past two months. William Stern, founder of Cardiff, stated, "With just over a week until the Fed meeting, inflation data remains unclear. Institutional investors are actively reducing risk. They are reluctant to hold highly volatile assets like Bitcoin to avoid Powell making hawkish statements."
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