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EUR/USD Tests $1.1343: Will Powell, Tariffs, and Inflation Drive a Breakout?
By: fxleaders|2025/05/05 16:15:01
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EUR/USD is trading around $1.1322 in early Monday trading as the pair consolidates ahead of major events. A big source of stability came from US President Donald Trump saying he won’t replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Though Trump didn’t mince words, calling Powell “a total stiff”, not replacing Powell helped calm nerves. At the same time Trump reiterated he wants rates to come down—a signal that may fuel dovish speculation on future Fed moves despite strong April jobs data. Trump says Powell stays through May 2026 Wants rates down despite strong data Tariff headlines resurface, weighing on sentiment Strong Jobs Data vs. Tariff Headwinds April Nonfarm Payrolls came in way above expectations, 177,000 jobs added, vs 130,000 forecast. March was revised up to 185,000. Unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% and wages 3.8% year over year, same as last month. Under normal circumstances this would be dollar bullish. But Trump’s new plan to impose 100% tariff on foreign produced movies has raised trade friction concerns. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned this could harm the US economy and offset the dollar’s tailwind from jobs data. Markets will look to the ISM Services PMI later today for more on service sector strength and inflation. Euro Gets Boost from Inflation Surprise On the Eurozone side, inflation data was slightly positive. Headline inflation was 2.2% as expected. Services inflation was 3.9% and core inflation 2.7%. This doesn’t kill the ECB rate cut expectations but suggests the pace might be more gradual than assumed. Traders now price in 60 bps of ECB cuts by year end, down from earlier estimates. EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Key Levels EUR/USD is stuck below the trendline and has resistance at $1.1378. A break above $1.1343 could take it to $1.1424. Below $1.1297 look for weakness. MACD is not showing much momentum so be patient. Trade Ideas: Buy above $1.1343, target $1.1378–$1.1424 Sell below $1.1297, target $1.1265–$1.1216 Use stop-losses outside the breakout zones Don’t trade within tight ranges and wait for clean breakouts.
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