Fed Meeting Preview: Press Conference Could Bring Hawkish Surprise

BlockBeats News, October 29th: Analysts say Powell's press conference may bring a hawkish surprise. The current baseline scenario is that in the absence of government data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will maintain the status quo and not reveal too much in terms of forward guidance. The only potential surprise for the market would be if he shows uncertainty about a rate cut in December, which could be seen as a hawkish surprise as the market is currently confident in a December rate cut.

In theory, market uncertainty about a December rate cut would lead to a stock market decline, rising Treasury yields, short-term bond yields rising faster than long-term bond yields, a significant strengthening of the US dollar, and a decline in gold, silver, and other precious metals. On the other hand, if Powell's stance on a December rate cut remains unchanged, the market will continue to fluctuate based on the development of the trade situation. (FX678)