Independent Researcher: $61 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Collapse

BlockBeats News, November 21st: Shanaka Anslem Perera, an independent financial market researcher, wrote that after NVIDIA's financial report was released yesterday, the stock price initially rose by 5%, but plunged into negative territory within 18 hours. The company's accounts receivable reached a staggering $33.4 billion, an 89% year-on-year increase. The average collection period has extended to 53 days, with an inventory of $19.8 billion in unsold chips. The cash flow is only $14.5 billion, while the profit is reported at $19.3 billion, indicating a $4.8 billion gap, highlighting significant financial pressure.

What is even more concerning is that funds of multiple AI companies are being recycled, NVIDIA's chip sales have been recorded as revenue multiple times without actual receipts, leading to aging accounts, piling inventory, and a continuous expansion of cash shortfall. AI startups incur huge losses annually, some investments are overvalued, and financial institutions have begun adjusting their positions, including reduced holdings by Peter Thiel and SoftBank, as well as Michael Burry betting on NVIDIA's stock price decline.

The market impact quickly became evident: Bitcoin plummeted from $126,000 in October to $86,000, with Bitcoin used as collateral for loans by AI startups facing selling pressure. It is expected that in February 2026, after NVIDIA's financial report discloses the situation of overdue receivables, it will trigger a credit rating downgrade and financial restatement. The market estimates NVIDIA's fair value to be around $71 per share, while the current stock price is $186, indicating significant potential downside risk.

Overall, Perera holds a cautious stance on central bank interventions, geopolitical frictions, and technology concentration risks. He advises investors to turn to assets primarily driven by "thermodynamics and game theory" rather than nostalgic central bank reliance. Additionally, he emphasizes the shift in investment structure: a massive influx of ETFs and passive investing replacing active trading, indicating that market liquidity and price discovery are more influenced by algorithms and large-scale fund flows rather than individual asset fundamentals.