- Buy Crypto
- Markets
Futures- Spot
- Copy Trade
Earn- More
Macro Cycle Peak: Are You Ready for the Upcoming Decade-long Bear Market?
Original Article Title: Macro Tops: the multi-decade bear market
Original Article Author: mikeykremer, Messari Research Analyst
Original Article Translation: ChatGPT
Editor's Note: The author reflects on the period from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to Trump's re-election in 2024, during which the U.S.-led global economy experienced a super bull market driven by one-off events such as the U.S.'s rise to a superpower after World War II, the entry of women and minority groups into the workforce, and the victory in the Cold War. However, the author believes this feast has ended due to trends toward deglobalization, non-repeatable labor force expansion, and the inability to further lower interest rates. The future will involve financial asset liquidation, capital controls, and fiscal repression, with traditional markets struggling to replicate their past glory. Gold and Bitcoin, as uncontrollable non-traditional assets, will become safe-haven choices, especially Bitcoin, which may rise in small and medium-sized countries due to its digital advantages, ultimately reaching a million-dollar market cap, but it must first undergo the test of a bear market.
The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for readability):
TL;DR
· Globalization has ended, and your financial assets have been liquidated.
· Non-traditional assets are your redemption.
· Bitcoin may reach a million dollars.
From the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to Trump's second election victory in 2024, we witnessed an unparalleled super bull market. This sustained rise shaped generations of passive investors who habitually believed that "the market can never go wrong" and "the market will only go up." However, I believe this feast is over, and many are about to face liquidation.
How Did We Get Here?
The super bull market from 1939 to 2024 was not accidental but was due to a series of structural changes that fundamentally reshaped the global economy, with the U.S. always at the center.
Rise to a Global Superpower After World War II
World War II propelled the U.S. from a middle power to the indisputable leader of the "free world." By 1945, the U.S. was manufacturing over half of the world's industrial products, controlling about a third of global exports, and holding roughly two-thirds of the world's gold reserves. This economic dominance laid the foundation for growth over the following decades.
Unlike the post-World War I isolationism, post-World War II America actively embraced its global leadership role, driving the establishment of the United Nations and implementing the Marshall Plan, injecting over $13 billion into Western Europe. This was not just aid—it created new markets for American products through investment in post-war nations, while solidifying its cultural and economic dominance.
Labor Force Expansion: Women and Minority Participation
During World War II, approximately 6.7 million women entered the labor force, leading to a nearly 50% growth in the female labor force participation rate within a few short years. Although many women left the workforce after the war, this large-scale mobilization permanently changed societal views on women's employment.
By 1950, a significant trend of married women's widespread employment became more apparent, with most age groups of women experiencing an unprecedented 10-percentage-point increase in labor force participation rates. This was not just a wartime exception but a starting point for a fundamental shift in the American economic model. Policies such as the "marriage bar" (which banned married women from working) were abolished, part-time work increased, household labor underwent technological innovation, and higher levels of education all contributed to women transitioning from temporary laborers to long-term participants in the economic system.
Similar trends also occurred within minority communities, gradually providing them with more economic opportunities. This labor force expansion effectively boosted America's production capacity and supported decades of economic growth.
Cold War Victory and the Wave of Globalization
The Cold War shaped the political and economic role of the United States in the post-World War II era. By 1989, the U.S. had formed military alliances with 50 countries and stationed 1.5 million troops in 117 countries globally. This was not just for military security but also to establish American economic influence on a global scale.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States emerged as the world's sole superpower, entering an era that many considered a unipolar world. This was not only an ideological victory but also the opening up of global markets, allowing the U.S. to dominate the global trade landscape.
From the 1990s to the early 21st century, American companies aggressively expanded into emerging markets. This was not a natural evolution but rather the result of long-term policy choices. For example, in countries where the CIA intervened during the Cold War, the U.S.'s imports increased significantly, especially in industries where the U.S. did not have a clear competitive advantage.
The triumph of Western capitalism over Eastern communism was not solely based on military or ideological superiority. The Western liberal democratic system proved to be more adaptable, being able to effectively adjust its economic structure even after the 1973 oil crisis. The "Volcker Shock" of 1979 reshaped America's global financial dominance, turning the global capital markets into a new engine of growth for the U.S. in the post-industrial era.
These structural shifts — the rise to superpower status after World War II, the entry of women and minorities into the workforce, and the victory in the Cold War — have collectively driven this unprecedented financial asset super bull market. However, the core issue is: these shifts were all one-time events and cannot be repeated. You can't bring women back into the workforce, you can't defeat the Soviet Union again. And now, both parties are pushing for deglobalization, and we are witnessing the last support of this ultra-long cycle of growth being withdrawn.
What Will Happen Next?
I like Tom; he is my TradFi sentiment indicator in the Crypto world.
However, unfortunately, everyone is praying for the market to return to historical normalcy. The market consensus is: things will get worse, then the central banks will flood liquidity again, and we can continue to make money... But the reality is: these people are heading to the slaughterhouse.
The bull market of nearly a century was built on a series of events that cannot be repeated (bull market cannot continue), and some of these factors are even reversing.
· Women will not re-enter the workforce on a large scale: In fact, as Musk and the pro-natalist elite drive efforts to increase the birth rate, women's labor force participation rates may decline.
· Minorities will not be absorbed into the workforce on a large scale again: In fact, the Democratic Party's position on immigration policy is almost as tough as the Republican Party's, creating a bipartisan consensus on this issue.
· Interest rates will not fall again: In fact, every elected leader is acutely aware that inflation is the biggest threat to their re-election. Therefore, governments worldwide will strive to avoid rate cuts and reignite inflation.
· We will not further globalize: In fact, Trump is pushing in the complete opposite direction. Additionally, I expect the Democratic Party to replicate this policy in the next election (remember, much of Biden's policies directly copied Trump's first-term policies).
· We will not win another world war: In fact, it seems we might even lose the next one. Either way, I don't want to verify this speculation.
My view is simple: all the global macro trends that have driven the stock market up over the past century are now reversing. How do you think the market will fare?
Goblin Town
When an empire is in decline, times can be really tough - just ask Japan. If you bought at the historical peak of the Nikkei 225 index in 1989 and held until now, 36 years have passed, and your return is approximately -5%. This is the typical "buy and hold, endure the pain" scenario. I believe we are walking down the same path.
Even worse, you should be prepared for capital controls and financial repression policies. Just because the market isn't going up doesn't mean the government will accept reality. When traditional monetary policy fails, the government will turn to more direct financial control measures.
Upcoming Capital Controls
Financial Repression refers to giving savers a return lower than the inflation rate so that banks can provide cheap loans to businesses and governments and reduce debt repayment pressure. This strategy is particularly effective in government currency debt resolution. In 1973, economists at Stanford University first used this term to criticize policies in emerging markets that were hindering economic growth, but today, these strategies are increasingly appearing in developed economies such as the United States.
It may sound like a joke, but you should seriously think about why the Monero candlestick chart looks so perfect right now.
As the U.S. debt burden surpasses 120% of GDP, the likelihood of repaying debt through traditional means is diminishing. The "playbook" of financial repression has already begun to be implemented or tested, including:
· Direct or indirect government debt and deposit rate restrictions
· Government control of financial institutions and the establishment of competitive barriers
· High reserve requirements
· Creating a closed domestic debt market, forcing institutions to purchase government bonds
· Capital controls to restrict cross-border asset flows
This is not a theoretical assumption but a real-world case. Since 2010, the U.S. federal funds rate has been below the inflation rate for over 80% of the time, effectively forcibly transferring savers' wealth to borrowers (including the government).
Your Retirement Account: The Government's Next Target
If the government cannot rely on printing money to purchase bonds, lower interest rates to avoid a debt crisis, they will set their sights on your retirement account. I can fully imagine a future where tax-advantaged accounts like a 401(k) will be increasingly mandated to allocate more and more towards "safe and secure" government bonds. The government won't need to print more money; they'll just directly expropriate existing funds in the system.
This is exactly the script we've seen play out over the past few years:
· Asset Freezing: In April 2024, Biden signed a law authorizing the government to seize Russia's reserves in the U.S., setting a precedent for the government to freeze foreign reserves at any time. In the future, such actions may not be exclusive to geopolitical adversaries.
· Canadian Freedom Convoy Protest Event: The government froze about 280 bank accounts without court approval. Financial officials admitted that this was not only to cut off the flow of funds but also to "deter" protesters and ensure they "make the decision to leave." When asked how the account freezes affected innocent families, the government's response was: "They just need to leave."
Gold Confiscation and Surveillance
It's no surprise, the U.S.'s history is rife with similar actions:
In 1933, Roosevelt (FDR) issued Executive Order 6102, mandating citizens to turn in their gold under threat of imprisonment. Despite limited enforcement, the Supreme Court upheld the government's authority for gold confiscation. This was not a "voluntary purchase program" but a "mandatory wealth expropriation," just dressed up as "fair market value" transactions.
The government's surveillance capabilities rapidly expanded following the 9/11 attacks. The FISA Amendments Act gave the NSA nearly unfettered power to monitor international communications of American citizens. The Patriot Act allowed the government to collect the phone records of all Americans daily. Section 215 even permitted the government to collect your reading records, study materials, purchase history, medical records, and personal financial information without any suspicion.
The question is not whether "financial repression is coming" but rather "how severe it will be." As the pressures of deglobalization on the economy intensify, government control of capital will only become more direct and harsh.
Gold & Bitcoin
The monthly gold chart since 1970 is currently the world's strongest candlestick chart.
Based on the process of elimination, the most suitable financial asset to buy has become quite clear — you need an asset that is uncorrelated with the market, hard to confiscate by governments, and not under the control of Western governments. I can think of two, one of which has increased its market value by $6 trillion in the past 12 months. This is the most obvious bull market signal.
Global Gold Reserve Race
Countries such as China, Russia, and India are rapidly increasing their gold reserves in response to the changing global economic landscape:
· China: Increased gold holdings by 5 tons in January 2025, with net purchases for three consecutive months, reaching a total holding of 2,285 tons.
· Russia: Controls 2,335.85 tons of gold, becoming the world's fifth-largest gold reserve holder.
· India: Ranks eighth globally, holding 853.63 tons and continuing to increase its reserves.
This is not arbitrary behavior but strategic positioning. After the Group of Seven froze Russia's forex reserves, central banks worldwide took note. A survey of 57 central banks showed that 96% of respondents view gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset as a motive to continue investing. When dollar-denominated assets can be nullified by a single freeze, physical gold held within the country becomes highly attractive.
In just 2024, Turkey increased its gold reserves by 74.79 tons, a growth of 13.85%. Poland saw a rise of 89.54 tons in its gold reserves, nearly a 25% increase. Even small countries like Uzbekistan added 8 tons of gold in January 2025, bringing their gold holdings to 391 tons, which represent 82% of their forex reserves. This is not coincidental but a concerted effort aimed at escaping a potentially weaponized financial system.
Nations trust gold the most as they have established systems to use it for reserves and trade settlements. The total gold holdings of BRICS central banks represent over 20% of the global central bank gold holdings. As the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan stated in January 2025, they are transitioning to a "currency-neutral gold purchase" in order to increase international reserves and "shield the economy from external shocks."
Bitcoin
This era dominated by gold may continue for several months or even years, but eventually, its limitations will become apparent. Many small and medium-sized countries lack the banking infrastructure and navy to manage the global logistics of gold, making them potentially the earliest adopters of Bitcoin as a replacement for gold.
· El Salvador: In 2021, it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender. By 2025, its Bitcoin reserve had grown to over $550 million.
· Bhutan: Using hydropower for mining, its Bitcoin reserve has exceeded $1 billion, accounting for one-third of the country's GDP.
As the world becomes more chaotic, countries are less likely to trust their gold to allies. The risk of confiscation is too great, as evidenced by Venezuela's failed attempt to repatriate gold from the Bank of England. For smaller nations, Bitcoin offers a compelling alternative—it can be stored without a physical vault, transferred without ships, and secured without an army.
This transitional period will propel us into the next stage of Bitcoin adoption, but you must remain patient. The world will not change overnight, and neither will the monetary system. By 2025, we have already seen the beginning of this shift, with countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Vietnam seeing increased Bitcoin adoption as people seek protection against inflation and financial instability.
The path forward is clear: first gold, then Bitcoin. As more countries realize the limitations of physical gold in an increasingly digital and fragmented world, the proposal of Bitcoin as digital gold becomes more enticing. The question is not whether this shift will happen, but when—and which countries will lead the way.
A $1 million Bitcoin is on the horizon, but you must remain patient. Prepare yourself for a severe bear market first.
You may also like
Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?
February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?
China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.
Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.
Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus
Vitalik Discusses Ethereum Scaling Path, Circle Announces Partnership with Polymarket, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
Believing in the Capital Markets - The Essence and Core Value of Cryptocurrency
Polymarket's 'Weatherman': Predict Temperature, Win Million-Dollar Payout
$15K+ Profits: The 4 AI Trading Secrets WEEX Hackathon Prelim Winners Used to Dominate Volatile Crypto Markets
How WEEX Hackathon's top AI trading strategies made $15K+ in crypto markets: 4 proven rules for ETH/BTC trading, market structure analysis, and risk management in volatile conditions.
A nearly 20% one-day plunge, how long has it been since you last saw a $60,000 Bitcoin?
Raoul Pal: I've seen every single panic, and they are never the end.
Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 6th - A Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report
2026 Crypto Industry's First Snowfall
The Harsh Reality Behind the $26 Billion Crypto Liquidation: Liquidity Is Killing the Market
Why Is Gold, US Stocks, Bitcoin All Falling?
Key Market Intelligence for February 5th, how much did you miss out on?
Wintermute: By 2026, crypto had gradually become the settlement layer of the Internet economy
Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?
February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?
China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.
Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.
App