New York Mellon: This Week the Fed Will Cut Rates Hawkishly, Dot Plot Expected to Reveal Policy Rift

BlockBeats News, December 8th, a Mellon Bank analyst pointed out in a report that the market has fully digested the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, but an increasing consensus believes that this will be a hawkish rate cut. This means that further monetary easing will depend on whether the economic data announced in March and June 2026 show weakness or if inflation further recedes.

The analyst also noted that the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve Chair poses a risk, as the market will assess the policy tendencies of the new leadership. In addition, the FOMC will release its dot plot, likely confirming recent internal divergences within the committee on the policy stance.

It is expected that committee members' views on the 2026 policy direction will diverge significantly, reflecting the bi-directional economic risks we anticipate.