Odds surge for Trump cutting capital gains tax in 2025

There is increasing speculation that capital gains tax could be cut or eliminated completely in 2025 — both federally and at the state level on Polymarket — the prediction market where users bet on the outcome of real-world events. The odds that the president Donald Trump will cut long-term capital gains taxes this year jumped to 57% on Polymarket, up 17 points over the previous 24 hours. In fact, there is over $200,000 of volume flowing into the market.NEW: The odds of Trump eliminating capital gains tax this year are surging.It's now looking more likely than not that they'll be eliminated.— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 12, 2025The jump in Polymarket comes as Missouri is about to become the first state in the country to eliminate capital gains tax entirely. House Bill 594, which was approved by the Missouri state legislature, is pending the signature of Governor Mike Kehoe. If signed, the new law would allow a 100% income tax deduction on capital gains — which includes profit from crypto, stocks, and real estate.This would make Missouri the most tax-amp advantageous state in the country for digital asset holders. Before this legislation capital gains were treated like ordinary income in Missouri with high earners paying a maximum of 4.7%.The Missouri vote also fits into Trump’s broader tax plan that he floated last month where he suggested replacing income taxes with revenue from import tariffs.With Polymarket odds on the rise and states like Missouri advocating for reform rapidly, it is evident that capital gains taxation is evolving in the U.S. and crypto investors are paying attention.