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Tonight's Soft Non-Farm Payroll Report May Trigger Rate Cut, Labor Market "Frozen," Putting Pressure on the Fed
BlockBeats News, September 5th, Economists expect that the employment report scheduled to be released Friday evening will continue the weakest employment growth trend in the United States since the pandemic, likely prompting the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut. According to the median forecast from a survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls for August are expected to increase by 75,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of employment growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
In recent months, U.S. employment growth has slowed significantly as recruitment activities have cooled off due to concerns over demand, rising costs, and ongoing economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump's erratic trade policies. This has put greater pressure on Federal Reserve officials to intervene and support the increasingly sluggish labor market. Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, stated, "The labor market is essentially frozen, and businesses are on pause as they wait to see how things shake out before making decisions."
The July employment report released on August 1st revealed that employment growth in recent months has been far below previous reports, altering the views of many economists and policymakers regarding the labor market. The significant downward revisions also led to Trump abruptly firing the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, sparking concerns about the future integrity of U.S. data. With the labor market conditions becoming increasingly fragile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has expressed openness to a rate cut, with the soft August employment report further strengthening the case for a cut. Market pricing of futures contracts indicates a widespread expectation that Federal Reserve officials will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the September 16-17 meeting. However, it remains unclear what actions the Federal Reserve will take at the upcoming meetings.
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