The Great Dilemma of 2026: What Will Be the True Floor of Bitcoin?

• A report published by CryptoQuant questions whether the market has already hit bottom.
• Major investors are betting that Bitcoin will reach USD 72,000 this month.

The debate over what the floor price of Bitcoin will be is open. Various analysts present their ideas on the market's direction, with conflicting opinions on the path that the digital currency could take in 2026.

All this while (at the close of this edition) BTC is trading around USD 64,500, nearly 12% above its last low mark of USD 57,800, recorded on July 1.

Joe Burnett, Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at the investment firm Strive, stated on July 17 that the floor of the Bitcoin bear market in 2026 would be USD 61,000. This is based on a mathematical model he applied to the historical lows of previous bear cycles.

A power law model is a mathematical function in which a variable grows in proportion to a fixed power of another, which Burnett used to fit a curve over the historical price lows of Bitcoin.

Burnett calculated the time elapsed in days since the genesis block on January 3, 2009. The following chart, shared by the analyst, shows six historical price lows as the basis for the adjustment over that time: 2 dollars in 2011, 62 dollars in 2013, 154 dollars in 2015, 475 dollars in 2016, 3,142 dollars in 2018, and 16,000 dollars in 2022.
The floor for Bitcoin in 2026 would be USD 61,000, according to Burnett. Source: Joe Burnett / X.

Each low is higher than the previous one, as shown by the curve, which supports the central argument of the model: that the floors of Bitcoin's bear cycles tend to rise over time.

The curve adjusted by Burnett has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9976. A value close to the maximum possible of 1, indicating a high statistical correlation between historical data and the mathematical function. Based on that curve, the model projects a floor of 188,000 dollars for 2030 and 582,000 dollars for 2035.

However, the chart itself clarifies that this is an illustrative model and not a prediction of future prices.

ETF Outflows in 2026 Doubt That BTC Has Already Hit Bottom {#h-etf-outflows-in-2026-doubt-that-btc-has-already-hit-bottom}

While Burnett's model suggests that each bear cycle establishes a higher floor than the previous one, an analysis published by IT Tech on the same day, July 17, on the CryptoQuant platform, questions whether the market has already hit bottom.

Their hypothesis arises from the behavior of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) operating in the United States.

According to IT Tech, these funds were one of the main drivers of Bitcoin's price increase between 2024 and 2025, a period during which they accumulated sustained net capital inflows. In 2026, that trend reversed: the funds are accumulating net outflows close to 120,000 BTC, according to IT Tech's estimates.

The report suggests that if the demand for these funds drove the previous price increase, it is contradictory to maintain an optimistic stance while that demand completely reverses. This shift represents, in their words, an obstacle rather than a boost for the price.

As shown in the accompanying chart, CryptoQuant compares the accumulated amount of Bitcoin that entered or exited these funds during 2024, 2025, and 2026.

• In 2024 (pink line), the curve shows a sustained accumulation that brought the total to over 400,000 BTC by the end of the year.
• In 2025 (blue line), accumulation continued but at a more moderate pace, peaking at around 250,000 BTC.
• In 2026 (orange line), however, the curve turned negative from mid-year, reflecting that funds withdrew more bitcoin than they received during that period.

Accumulated outflows from bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Source: IT Tech / CryptoQuant.

Large investors bet on USD 72,000 before month-end {#h-large-investors-bet-on-usd-72-000-before-month-end}

Adding to previous positions is the sentiment of institutional traders who bought this week on the derivatives platform Deribit about USD 2.5 billion. They used an options strategy that bets on the price of bitcoin reaching USD 72,000 by July 31.

The operation consisted of buying 20,000 call option contracts expiring that day with a strike price of USD 70,000. This, along with the sale of another 20,000 call option contracts with the same expiration but with a strike price of USD 72,000.

Such a combination, known as a bullish call spread, works like buying a ticket that pays off if bitcoin exceeds USD 70,000, but giving up profits above USD 72,000 in exchange for a lower entry cost.

Jean-David Péquignot, commercial director of the Deribit platform, stated that an operation of this size usually reflects the positioning of institutional investors, given the capital it requires and the precision needed to choose the strike price.

The chosen expiration for this bet, July 31, falls two days after the interest rate decision that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will make on July 29.

Federal funds futures place the probability of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% between 75% and 80%.

This expectation of a pause is supported by June inflation data, which showed a marked slowdown at both consumer and producer levels. Largely due to the drop in oil prices following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

However, tensions between the two countries escalated this week with new attacks that disrupted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI and Brent, the two main benchmark oil types, to mark their largest increase since March.

This situation raises doubts about whether the inflation relief from June is still valid.

Additionally, on July 17, the price of bitcoin fell below the USD 64,000 mark, following statements from Donald Trump regarding trade tensions with China.

In this context, a report from CriptoNoticias highlights that long-term investors have continued to accumulate bitcoin despite realizing losses of up to 40%.

Between a statistical model projecting increasingly higher floors for bitcoin and capital flow data showing declining institutional demand in 2026, the debate over whether this cycle's bear market has already bottomed out is far from settled.

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Tags: Bitcoin (BTC)
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